UFC Macao Franklin vs. Le

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PREVIEW

Rich Franklin (29-6, 1 NC) vs. Cung Le (8-2)
As I said yesterday, I think this fight still has relevance to the middleweight division. Le is a highly marketable fighter who will likely get a slight boost in recognition from his role in The Man with the Iron Fists (in theatres now), and Franklin remains a good name, a solid fighter, and a company man, so you can be sure he’ll be near the top of the marquee a few more times in 2013.
While Le looked much better in his second UFC appearance than he did in his first, I still favour Franklin in this match-up. Though the former Strikeforce middleweight champion took a more measured approach with Patrick Cote at UFC 148 than he did with Wanderlei Silva at UFC 139, this fight is scheduled for five rounds, and I don’t see him being able to go 25 minutes with a savvy veteran like Franklin.
“Ace” knows how to win these fights, and his style is perfect for a bout with Le. The former middleweight champion and overlooked superstar likes to stay on the outside and work his lanky left jab, mixing in kicks periodically, and setting a tempo that isn’t hellacious, but is brisk enough that it can tire opponents out when they try to match it.
Outside of icing “The Iceman” at UFC 115, it’s been a while since Franklin stopped anyone, and I don’t expect that to change here. What we should get is another workman-like effort from Franklin where he picks his spots well, stays out of serious trouble, and earns a decision victory in the end.
Prediction: Rich Franklin by Unanimous Decision
Stanislav Nedkov (12-0) vs. Thiago Silva (14-3, 1 NC)
Silva has struggled mightily over the last few years, but Nedkov’s inexperience and lack of activity over the last 15 months has me leaning towards the Brazilian in this one.
When he was making his way up the light heavyweight ranks, Silva was a fearsome striker who came forward without hesitation, firing strikers with brute force and bad intentions. Unless Nedkov does a complete about-face from what we saw when he took on Luis Cane last August, Silva should encountered an opponent who is willing to trade shots in this one, and while Nedkov was able to get the better of Cane, I don’t think he can survive the type of onslaught I expect Silva to unleash.
Two other things play into my selection of Silva:
(1) I like that he’s switched camps and is now training with The Blackzilians. They’re a hard-working, dedicated group with very good coaching, and I think striking coach Henri Hooft will tap into the skills that made Silva so dangerous earlier in this career.
(2) This is do or die for the Brazilian. With everything he’s been through in the last couple years – one win in his last five fights and a one-year suspension – you would have to assume Silva is on a short leash with the UFC. If I know that, you can be sure that his team knows that, and the potential of being released should spur Silva on once he steps into the cage on Saturday.
Prediction: Thiago Silva by TKO, Round 1
Dong Hyun Kim (15-2-1, 1 NC) vs. Paulo Thiago (14-4)
I’m really intrigued by this fight simply because I have absolutely no idea what to expect.
Kim had the weird rib injury thing against Demian Maia earlier this year, looked just alright in beating Sean Pierson last winter, and was quickly dropped by Carlos Condit in the fight before that. Thiago, as I mentioned yesterday, has struggled mightily since beating Mike Swick, so much so that he could be on his way out of the UFC if he comes out on the wrong side of things here.
As much as I like Kim’s control-based grappling game – especially in the clinch along the cage – I think Thiago is the better all-around fighter, and it will show in this one. Kim’s hands have never been that impressive, and I think Thiago will be able to land fairly easily when the two are in space. Once the fight moves to close quarters, the Brazilian has the submission game to keep Kim from over-committing in the clinch. Even if Kim is able to get this fight to the ground, I believe Thiago has the ability to be effective off his back, either threatening with submissions or getting back up to his feet to reset.
Just like Silva, I think Thiago knows he doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room heading into this one, and we should get a much better performance from him here.
Prediction: Paulo Thiago by Submission, Round 2
Mac Danzig (21-9-1) vs. Takanori Gomi (33-8, 1 NC)
This one really comes down to whether or not Gomi is able to land one of his overhand right fastballs on Danzig, and I don’t think he will.
As much as Danzig has struggled to find consistency over his 10-fight UFC career, he’s been in there with some solid competition, and also acquitted himself well, even in defeat. Gomi, on the other hand, has been a disappointment since debuting with the organization in March 2010. While some of that definitely comes from unfairly high expectations, he struggled in the opening round of his UFC 144 win over Eiji Mitsuoka, which doesn’t bode well for his chances here.
Part of what did Mitsuoka in back in February was his conditioning, but that won’t be a problem for Danzig. I expect the former Ultimate Fighter winner to close the distance behind his hands, and dominate Gomi in this one. The former Pride Bushido star has been finished in each of his three UFC losses, and was rocked at one point against Mitsuoka, so I expect Danzig comes away with a submission win here.
Prediction: Mac Danzig by Submission, Round 2
Alex Caceres (7-5) vs. Motonobu Tezuka (19-4)
I am an Alex Caceres convert.
When he first started in the UFC, I wasn’t a big fan; I thought he spent too much time being happy just to be in the UFC and worrying about his dancing/outfit/Bruce Leeroy thing, and it showed in the cage. Since moving to bantamweight, however, the former Ultimate Fighter contestant has looked very good, and would be riding a three-fight winning streak into this one if not for a crazy two-point deduction and some wonky scores in his bout with Edwin Figueroa.
Tezuka, who took this fight on short notice after Road FC champion Kyung Ho Kang was forced to withdraw, hasn’t fought since April, and while he’s the far more seasoned of the two, stepping up to the big stage without time to properly prepare is usually a recipe for defeat.
Caceres uses his length well, and is always hunting for submissions when he’s on the ground. If he keeps the fight standing, I think he can pick Tezuka apart from range, and if they go to the ground, I anticipate “Bruce Leeroy” finding a submission. Either way, Caceres should go home with a victory.
Prediction: Alex Caceres by Submission, Round 2
Jon Tuck (6-0) vs. Tiequan Zhang (15-3)
This is a great opportunity for Tuck, a TUF 15 tryout who lost to finalist Al Iaquinta in the elimination round and suffered a gnarly broken toe in the process.
Zhang is 2-3 under the Zuffa banner (1-1 WEC, 1-2 UFC) and his only UFC win was a complete gift againt Jason Reinhardt at UFC 127. He tries for roughly 382 guillotine chokes per fight, and was slept by Issei Tamura last time out. Provided Tuck doesn’t leave his neck exposed, I think the 6-0 Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter who has earned consecutive first-round knockout wins should come away with a victory in his UFC debut.