UFC 164

Benson Henderson (155) vs. Anthony Pettis (155)
Frank Mir (248) vs. Josh Barnett (255)
Chad Mendes (145) vs. Clay Guida (146)
Ben Rothwell (262) vs. Brandon Vera (241)
Erik Koch (145) vs. Dustin Poirier (145.5)
Jamie Varner (156) vs. Gleison Tibau (155)
Louis Gaudinot (125) vs. Tim Elliott (125.5)
Pascal Krauss (170) vs. Hyun Gyu Lim (171)
Chico Camus (135) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (136)
Soa Palelei (265) vs. Nikita Krylov (236)
Ryan Couture (156) vs. Al Iaquinta (156)
Jared Hamman (185.5) vs. Magnus Cedenblad (185)

UFC 164 will be held on Saturday with the most anticipated rematch in a long while. Former WEC champs will reconnect, as current UFC titleholder Benson Henderson meets bitter rival Anthony Pettis.

Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis

It really is possible to cobble together several plausible scenarios where either fighter wins. Henderson's mix of offense, inability to be trapped in bad spots and nearly 30-rounds of UFC experience are hard to overlook. By contrast, Pettis' development and momentum is hard to ignore. He is clearly the superior striker of the two and it's not impossible to think he can stuff the takedown enough over five rounds to win three.

In the end, I'll side with Pettis. I don't know if he's the best lightweight in the sport, but I do believe his talents match up uniquely well with Henderson's, which is all that matters for our purposes here. I simply cannot ignore how long Henderson lets opponents hang around and how many times that's come close to costing him with the judges. I believe this time it'll come back to haunt him. We shall see.

Frank Mir vs. Josh Barnett

What a tough fight to call. It's not just a fun scrap, but a well-matched one as well. Barnett is the sturdier pocket exchanger, but Mir's combination punching is nothing to overlook. Barnett is a top player on the ground, but Mir's guard is the best in the heavyweight division (in terms of MMA jiu-jitsu, anyway). Neither is a spring chicken, but both are still viable competitors. I'm going to side with Barnett (while acknowledging the fight is ultra close) because of his more proactive style of offense. For better or worse, he typically presses the action, especially standing. Mir is often a little too content for my tastes to react to his opponents attacks.

Chad Mendes vs. Clay Guida

This is going to be a hard one for Guida to win. He's not going to break Mendes with his pace. He might score a takedown or two, but won't be able to rely on it. He also won't be able to avoid Mendes' attempts, at least not for very long. I'm not entirely sure how the fight will play out, but I don't see Guida being able to mount enough sustained enough to either stop or decision Mendes, which is basically all that matters.

Ben Rothwell vs. Brandon Vera

I believe this one will come down to the ability to absorb damage. Rothwell could try to smother Vera against the fence and on the ground. That is a realistic possibility, but I suspect this will more be a series of striking exchanges. For all of Vera's many problems, he is the cleaner, more reliable, and frankly, more battle-tested striker of the two. I get the inclination Rothwell will get popped with a few hard strikes that either put him away or give Vera the openings he needs to win rounds.

Erik Koch vs. Dustin Poirier

Another tough, well-matched bout on the card. I deeply respect the talents of both competitors, but will side with Koch. He's a bit more of a potent outside striker and has all the tools to at least be defensively nullifying in the clinch or on the ground. Poirier, however, is by no means out of this fight.