Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles

 Sunday's NRL grand final marks the conclusion of the 105th season of rugby league in Australia. Since the New South Wales Rugby League started in 1908, there have been 95 grand finals played to decide the season's premier club.

The Roosters and the Sea Eagles have taken part in 39 of these deciders - over a third of grand finals in history.

Formerly known as Eastern Suburbs, the Roosters have won 12 titles since 1908. Ten of these times they finished the season as the minor premiers, as they have in 2013.

The Sea Eagles have won the last two deciders they have been in, whereas the Roosters have lost their last three. Of their current side, only veteran Anthony Minichello remains from the 2003 and 2004 losses.
Head to head

This will be the 124th meeting of these clubs going back to 1947.

Sydney has only won 42 of these games, while Manly leads with 79. The Roosters have won the last three matches between these sides - all three were this season - but they have only won four of the last 10 against Manly.

This is the first time these sides have met at the Olympic stadium.
Grand final experience

The stats show overwhelmingly that grand final experience is a huge factor in determining the result of the deciders.

For the most part, teams do not win grand finals unless they have played in one within the previous six seasons.

The only real exceptions to this in the last 30 years were the Broncos in 1992, the Knights in 1997, the Panthers in 2003, the Wests-Tigers in 2005 and the Dragons in 2010.

The Roosters have an accumulated 13 grand final appearances amongst their line-up, whereas Manly players boast 25 games played in a decider.

The Roosters have seven players in their side that played in the losing 2010 grand final team and James Maloney played for the Warriors in their loss to Manly in 2011.

Sydney's only two players to have tasted grand final success are Minichello (in 2002 with the Roosters) and Sonny Bill Williams (in 2004 with the Bulldogs - against Sydney).

Minichello has played in five deciders all up and has the most grand final experience of any player taking the field.

The player with the second most decider experience is Manly captain Jamie Lyon. He has played in four grand finals for two premierships.

Eleven of the Sea Eagles' line-up are backing up from their 2011 grand final win. Seven of them are backing up from the 40-0 flogging of the Storm in 2008 and six played in the 2007 loss to Melbourne.

Manly has six grand final debutants, while the Roosters will feature eight.

The Sea Eagles have conceded a paltry 1.66 line breaks a match on average against the Roosters this year and the Roosters concede 1.5 more line breaks against the Sea Eagles on average a game than usual.

But bizarrely, Sydney only averages a solitary try conceded a match against Manly, which is under half its season average.

The Sea Eagles average missed tackles and errors rise sharply against the Roosters as well.

These are the two most penalised sides of 2013. The referees have frequently penalised both sides for slowing their opponents play holding down in the ruck.

This match could well be a replay of the trench warfare witnessed in the first week of the finals.

For the Roosters their hopes really revolve around two men: Maloney and Williams. If we accept that neither side will give up a try without a hell of a fight then it is these two who must be at their best to find a way through the Sea Eagles' superb defence.

Williams' penchant for tackle breaks and offloads must come to the fore and Maloney must be at his try assisting and line breaking best.

Similarly for Manly, its hopes revolve around a half and second rower. If there is a way through the Roosters defensive line then Daly Cherry-Evans is the man most likely to orchestrate it.

Anthony Watmough had a quiet game by his standards last week against the Rabbitohs but you can expect him to return to his high metre gaining, tackle breaking and offloading form in this game.
The liabilities

You can be sure that a lot of Sea Eagle traffic will be directed at the halves combination of Pearce and Maloney. They miss six tackles on average a match combined. Manly will be looking to tire them out in defence to try and blunt their skills in attack.

Manly's centres and wings have 104 errors combined this season. They must hold the ball and convert their chances in this game. This is especially the case as nearly 80 per cent of the Sea Eagles' tries have been scored out wide in 2013.
Who is going to win and why

The Roosters have been a force to be reckoned with this season and have beaten the Sea Eagles all three times. However, each time the margin has closed.

For my money, the most important stat where grand finals are concerned is the relative experience of the two sides. In this case, Manly has nearly double Sydney's experience and only two Roosters have experienced grand final victory.

If the Roosters are to win they must score good points within the first quarter of the match. But the greater experience and cool leadership of the Sea Eagles should see them settle first and outplay a gallant Sydney side.


Teams:

Sydney Roosters:

1. Anthony Minichiello (c)
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Michael Jennings
4. Shaun Kenny-Dowall
5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
6. James Maloney
7. Mitchell Pearce
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9. Jake Friend
10. Sam Moa
11. Aidan Guerra
12. Sonny Bill Williams
13. Frank-Paul Nuuausala

Interchange
14. Daniel Mortimer
15. Mitchell Aubusson
16. Isaac Liu
17. Dylan Napa

Coach: Trent Robinson



Manly Sea Eagles:

1. Brett Stewart
2. Jorge Taufua
3. Jamie Lyon (c)
4. Steve Matai
5. David Williams
6. Kieran Foran
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Brenton Lawrence
9. Matt Ballin
10. Brent Kite
11. Anthony Watmough
12. Justin Horo
13. Glenn Stewart

Interchange
14. David Gower
15. Jamie Buhrer
16. Tom Symonds
17. George Rose
18. James Hasson
19. Peta Hiku

Coach: Geoff Toovey